Washington, D.C. October 1, 2020 will mark the beginning of the federal fiscal year (FY) 2021, and with it, the infusion of a new allocation of immigrant visa (IV) numbers. This infusion typically results in some forward movement in Final Action Dates in the month of October, 2021. We anticipate that these dates will move forward rapidly possibly by 1 to 1.5 years or at least by several months in coming days and these forward movements will continue till Sep, 2021 or longer. (continues below).
(Update: The following is the early Filing date on Visa Bulletin for November, the dates remain unchanged from the Visa Bulletin for October, 2020)
October 2020 Visa Bulletin Updates (latest, Oct 24, 2020):
There have been some movements in Final Action Dates and rapid movements in early Filing Dates in the Visa Bulletin. Since then USCIS has announced that it will consider early Filing Dates for the filing of Adjustment of Status applications. This means if your priority date is earlier than the date on the chart, you may file your adjustment of status application if you otherwise meet the legal requirements for the adjustment of status. There will be some benefits of downgrading to EB-3 but this has to be done correctly and strategically. We anticipate that there will be "rapid forward movements" in EB-2, EB-3 and EB-1s perhaps by few years not just by months in coming months.
Early Filing Dates, Oct 2020, Employment-based (Visa Bulletin) (This case be used for Adjustment of Status Application):
Final Action Dates, Oct 2020, Employment-based (Visa Bulletin):
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment First:
WORLDWIDE: Current
China: Rapid forward movement
India: Rapid forward movementEmployment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China: Rapid forward movement
India: Rapid forward movementEmployment Third:
Worldwide: Current
China: Rapid forward movement
India: Rapid forward movement
Mexico: Current
Philippines: Likely to remain at the Worldwide dateEmployment Third – Other Workers:
Worldwide: Current
China: Steady forward movementEmployment Fourth: Current for most countries
El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras: Steady forward movement
Mexico: Steady forward movementEmployment Fifth: The category will remain “Current” for most countries
China: No forward movement
Vietnam: Limited forward movementFAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)
Worldwide dates:
F1: Up to three weeks
F2A: Current
F2B: Up to three weeks
F3: Up to two weeks
F4: Up to one week
.... (continue from above) As we indicated before, October’s Visa Bulletin has been unique, given competing tensions caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic. On the one hand, diminished agency processing capacity is likely to limit advancement in certain preference categories, such as EB-5 (primarily due to curtailed visa services in Guangzhou, China) and across the family-based (FB) preference categories (which are predominately processed at consular posts). On the other hand, most employment-based (EB) categories have the potential to experience significant forward movement. This means the priority date will be "current" for many potential applicants in the month of October. What remains uncertain is to what extent, if any, diminished agency capacity might curb advancement in the employment-based preference categories. The following are a few factors that will likely influence the October Visa Bulletin Final Action Dates and Dates for Filing.
I. Infusion of Unused Family-Based Numbers from FY20 into FY21 Employment-Based Allocation
For FY21, the allocation of employment-based visa numbers is expected to be unprecedentedly high. This is because the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) requires unused family-based visa numbers from the immediate prior fiscal year to be added to the employment-based allocation (and vice versa). There was significant employment-based number usage in FY20 before the COVID-19 pandemic began, while in contrast there has been minimal FB number usage because of extremely limited consular processing due to the pandemic and the immigrant visa restrictions of PP 10014.
When American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) last spoke with Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State in July 2020, he anticipated that the infusion of unused family-based visa numbers could increase the FY21 employment-based allocation to at least 250,000 immigrant visas.
To put that into perspective, FY20’s employment-based allocation is the second highest allocation of employment-based numbers in memory, at 156,000, with the highest being 158,000. An employment-based allocation of 250,000 would reflect a 63% increase relative to the highest allocation in recent memory.
Update from Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State in July 2020
For FY21, we expect the usage of family-based immigrant visas issued will continue to be significantly low in comparison to prior fiscal years due to the continuing global pandemic and the various travel bans that remain in effect. In FY19, a total of 230,860 family-based, employment-based and special immigrant visas were issued. To get a sense of the dramatic decrease in overall IV issuances resulting from the pandemic, in July 2019, consular posts issued a total of 39,568 IVs (across all categories, including DV and immediate relatives) in contrast to only 4,412 issued in July 2020. As the majority of employment-based IV cases are processed by USCIS, and USCIS experienced minimal disruptions due to the pandemic, employment-based number usage in FY20 remained relatively stable. As a result, the family-based numbers are not likely to receive a similar additional infusion of numbers and AILA therefore expects movements in the family-based categories to remain consistent with prior years.
II. Diminished Processing Capacity
From the AILA's Department of State (DOS) Liaison Committee’s interactions with the State Department over the years, we understand that the Final Action Dates are determined largely by assessing the supply of available visa numbers against the demand for such numbers, with the demand based upon data available from USCIS statistics and the State Department’s pending demand file. Through the pandemic we have learned that the agencies’ processing capacity also plays an important role in determining the forward movement of Final Action Dates.
Although many consular posts are starting a phased reopening, many are still operating in a mission critical status or are far from offering routine visa services. Recently, USCIS has reported difficulty maintaining its operations under its current budget, has hinted of possible furloughs and lengthy processing times, and plans to implement significant fee increases on October 2, 2020.
III. Will All Employment-Based Categories Become Current in October 2020, or Will It Be Business as Usual?
While it is conceivable that October 2020 could be reminiscent of the summer of 2007, when all employment-based preference categories immediately became current, it is more likely that diminished agency processing capacity will moderate forward movement of the Final Action Dates, especially in the consular-heavy family-based preference categories and in the EB-5 preference category. Moreover, movement in October may be more measured given that there have been some legislative efforts to recapture unused family-based visas for use by family-sponsored immigrants in FY21. At present, the likelihood of passing of any of these bills remains slim.
Despite its budgetary challenges, to date USCIS’s processing capacity has not been significantly curtailed by the pandemic, we expect that the infusion of additional IV numbers into the employment-based categories will likely result in significant advancement in all of the employment-based categories, perhaps with the exception of EB-5, due to the factors discussed above.
Neither the DOS Liaison Committee nor we have a have a crystal ball, we believe that the factors discussed above shed light on what we might see when the October Visa Bulletin is released. The one thing we are confident of is that the October 2020 Visa Bulletin will be one of the most anticipated Visa Bulletins in recent memory, given all of the various factors at play.
IV. Adhikari Law's plan of action for the filing of the Application to Adjust Status (I-485) in October
We at Adhikari Law anticipate that the October Visa Bulletin will be issued within the next few days. Given the possibility of a dramatic forward advancement in the employment-based Final Action Dates, Adhikari Law is prepared with a communication and case filing plan for our current and prospective clients, as those who have been waiting for years to file will be extremely eager to do so as soon as possible and before the end of October.
We have the capacity to file hundreds and thousands of Applications to Adjust Status to Legal Permanent Resident (I-485) and consular processing of immigrant visa. Send us an email at info@adhikarilaw.com if you would like to schedule a call.
Recent changes in immigration policies and procedures have made the things complex and may require a consultation with an experienced immigration lawyer. If you have any questions, our attorneys are here to answer your questions! We can be reached by phone at 888-820-4430 or by email at info@adhikarilaw.com. Contact us today for this and all other immigration-related questions or for legal help!